Global Economic Challenges and Opportunities for Montenegro – Interview with Predrag Bjelić, PhD
"Montenegro can successfully integrate into Global Value Chains and produce specific components for the world, thanks to its openness to international trade," Predrag Bjelić, PhD, a distinguished economist and professor of international trade and EU economics at the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade concluded.
Professor Bjelić is an expert in international economics, with a particular focus on global value chains and deglobalisation processes. He has furthered his studies at the London School of Economics (LSE), Harvard University, and the University of Oslo. Throughout his career, he has published several books and over a hundred scientific papers. His international experience includes serving as an expert for the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Additionally, he is the chairman of the Doctoral Studies Committee and a member of the Expert Council for Legal and Economic Sciences at the University of Belgrade.
As a visiting professor at the University of Montenegro, his long-term collaboration with Montenegrin colleagues has resulted in numerous scientific projects and publications. On the occasion of the Day of Scientific Diaspora, we spoke with Professor Bjelić about key changes in international trade, the challenges of deglobalisation, and the role of universities in regional and global economic integration.
Montenegro in a New Global Economic Environment
PR UMNE: Deglobalisation and changes in global value chains have influenced small economies. What opportunities you see for countries such as Montenegro in this new global economic environment?
BJELIĆ, PhD: Montenegro is a country of exceptional natural beauty, boasting the sea, mountains, canyons, and lakes, offering various opportunities for the development of the services sector, particularly tourism. The connection between Montenegro, as a small economy, and the global market—especially the regional market—is of great importance.
As a key tourist destination, Montenegro can ensure the export of its products indirectly through their sale to tourists. The country must work on protecting its indigenous products and securing geographical indications of origin to sell or export them at higher prices.
To strengthen its position as a major tourist destination, Montenegro must improve its connectivity by completing the highway to Serbia and the coastal region as soon as possible. In the interim, it must ensure strong air connections with the most important markets from which tourists arrive.
Due to its significant openness to the global market, Montenegro can successfully integrate into global value chains and produce specific components for international markets.
PR UMNE: Your research concerns with global value chains and deglobalisation. How would you explain this and its influnece on international trade, including countries such as Montenegro?
BJELIĆ, PhD: My specific field of research is international economics, with a focus on the trade aspects of the global economy. Today, international trade is one of the most significant activities in the world economy. Due to the liberalization of trade regimes and deregulation in many countries, economic interconnectivity between nations is now greater than ever in history.
The global market is increasingly viewed as a unified space, particularly due to the operations of large multinational corporations. These processes have led to a shift in production, where manufacturing no longer takes place in a single facility or country. Instead, production is fragmented into different phases, with each phase relocated to different countries where components and assemblies are manufactured within the framework of international production.
This new mode of production is referred to as Global Production Chains (GPC), and when these chains include services, they are known as Global Value Chains (GVC). Today, as a result of GVCs, international trade primarily involves the exchange of components and assemblies rather than complete products. However, this form of international business is only sustainable if globalization continues and trade remains liberalized between countries.
In the past decade, however, we have witnessed increasing geo-economic tensions and conflicts, a tightening of international trade regimes, the introduction of non-tariff barriers, and even rising tariff rates. These trends are pushing the world into a process of deglobalisation, disrupting existing GVCs and leading to the formation of regional supply chains. These regionalized chains often result in suboptimal trade and resource utilization.
For small countries, such as those in our region, maintaining strong connections with the global market is crucial—not only for economic development but also for survival.
Role of Universities in Adjusting
PR UMNE: As visiting professor on the University of Montenegro, how do you see role of the universities in adjusting to changes in global trade?
BJELIĆ, PhD: Universities in our region, covering the former Yugoslavia and Albania, are significantly open to international cooperation and have reformed their curricula to align with the modern development of economic science and the demands of business practice.
The economies of the region are highly dependent on the global market and international trade—some in goods trade (such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia) and others in services trade (such as Montenegro, Croatia, and Albania).
Universities in the region place significant emphasis on studying issues related to international economics, including both trade and financial aspects. A considerable number of universities have dedicated departments for international economics, and most offer specialized programs in international economics and business.
PR UMNE: How long does your cooperation with the University of Montenegro last?
BJELIĆ, PhD: I began teaching at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Montenegro back in 2008, initially at the undergraduate level, in the International Business course, and later at the postgraduate level, in International Trade Policy. As an adjunct professor, I was appointed by both the Faculty and the University.
I had a very successful collaboration with both colleagues and students. My colleagues from Podgorica and I worked on several international projects together and published papers in renowned international journals. I also participated in selection committees for faculty appointments in Podgorica and served as a reviewer for academic books. Many colleagues from Podgorica visited me in Belgrade as part of academic exchange programs.
Additionally, I mentored several doctoral dissertations and one master’s thesis in Podgorica. The University of Montenegro was among the first to introduce strict criteria regarding the academic credentials required for dissertation advisors.
Since 2007, I have also been a lecturer at the Gavro Vuković Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro.
International Experience
PR UMNE: Given your extensive career and collaboration with international organizations such as the WTO and UNCTAD, what are the key lessons you have learned that you consider relevant for the academic community and the economy of Montenegro?
BJELIĆ, PhD: For years, I have served as an expert for the WTO and UNCTAD, lecturing in their courses on international trade policy designed for trade ministry experts and the academic community, as well as collaborating on various projects.
International cooperation—not only economic but in all areas—is of vital importance for small countries. As a member of the UN and WTO, Montenegro has significant opportunities to protect its interests against larger and more powerful nations.
For academic community and students, it is essential to continuously strive for improvement and higher goals, integrating into the global landscape of top-tier scientific research. Professors and students should take full advantage of academic exchange opportunities, while students should also dedicate themselves to gaining practical experience through relevant internships.
PR UMNE: Your education and experience include studies at LSE, Harvard, and the University of Oslo. How have these experiences shaped your approach to teaching and research, and in what ways do you transfer this knowledge to students in the region, including Montenegro?
BJELIĆ, PhD: Advanced training at top educational institutions worldwide, made possible through various scholarships such as Fulbright, Chevening, and others, has allowed me to explore opportunities and understand the teaching methods and course design in the field of international trade.
Harvard, as a leading global institution, provided me with numerous research opportunities and helped me realize the importance of publishing work internationally. At the London School of Economics (LSE), I completed teacher training across three courses and developed the curriculum for International Trade, which I use at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade and previously used in Podgorica.
However, an equally important aspect of this training has been the professional connections I established during my visits—networks that continue to grow and develop over time.
Importance of Exchange of Knowledge
PR UMNE: What would you advise to students of the University of Montenegro who want to work with international trade and economics in global context?
BJELIĆ, PhD: It is essential to take a serious approach to studying international trade, both theoretically and in practice. Modern geo-economic conflicts could lead to the disruption of global value chains, making it necessary to monitor trade developments on a daily basis.
During their studies, students should not only rely on mandatory literature but also explore additional sources, attend seminars and panel discussions, and stay informed about current global trends. Additionally, gaining practical experience in successful companies is crucial.
International opportunities, such as exchanges through Erasmus+ and CEEPUS, as well as internships in global corporations, can play a key role in transferring valuable knowledge and expertise back to Montenegro.
PR UMNE: How days of Science Diaspora and similar events may contribute to development of cooperation among scientists from the region and the ones working on international level, especially in the field of international trade and economics?
BJELIĆ, PhD: This year, I participated for the first time in the Days of Montenegro’s Scientific Diaspora, and I was pleasantly surprised by how valuable this event was for connecting with researchers from around the world. I was also impressed by how engaging and insightful it was to listen to presentations from colleagues across different fields. I believe it is important to continue this tradition in the coming years.
My late father, who was originally from Kolašin, would have been very proud of my participation, as he always emphasized—despite my international achievements—that my collaboration with the Faculty of Economics at the University of Montenegro was equally important.
My colleagues and I regularly take part in various regional meetings. One of these is the annual Interdepartmental Meeting on International Economics, held at a different university each year. Additionally, numerous scientific conferences provide valuable opportunities for exchanging expert opinions and fostering academic dialogue.